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Written by Jim Patterson
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Wednesday, 06 February 2008 |
Here’s the Deal:
After a little opening
pep, prices continued the slide lower. Overall we are looking
at a bleak situation. Cisco, reported earnings and the results
of the tech titian pretty much sums up the current situation.
I have repeatedly stated that with the economy on the brink of
recession, CEOs are expected to be cautious with forward
looking guidance. CSCO guided numbers a little below consensus
after reporting a solid quarter. The stock is down in after
hours.
The Dow was unable to
hold 12,250. With the close at 12,200 I guess a bull could
argue that it is “hanging in there.” But it does not look
pretty at all. The real question going forward isn’t if the Dow
will break the January lows, it is when it will happen.
A case can be made that we will see prices “test” the January
lows and then rally handsomely before the move to new lows
takes place.
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Last Updated ( Wednesday, 06 February 2008 )
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Written by Jim Patterson
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Tuesday, 05 February 2008 |
Here’s the Deal:
When perception is
confronted by an extremely deviant reality, the market makes
big moves. In short, that is what happened on Tuesday. The ISM
data was horrendous. It isn’t that the market never saw it
coming; the problem is the market didn’t want to see it and
ignored the indication that said horrendous data was on the
way.
At the end of the day it
was all about the sellers. I am looking for some sort of
bullish data point. The only thing I can find, and I am not
sure this is really bullish, is Fed Fund Futures are pricing in
a 98% chance of another 1/2 point rate cut in the Fed Funds
rate at the next meeting on March 18.
The Dow broke 12,500 on
the open. There was not warning shot across the bow. The bulls
were hit with the big guns, point blank, on the open.
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Last Updated ( Tuesday, 05 February 2008 )
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Written by Jim Patterson
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Monday, 04 February 2008 |
Here’s the Deal:
Good Management or not,
you be the Judge. In June 2004 Microsoft had $60 Billion in
cash. Today they are considering selling debt for the first
time ever to complete their huge offer to acquire Yahoo.
Microsoft is supposed to be a cash cow, but it looks to me like
they have figured out a way to spend it all. And just like so
many Americans, they seem content on spending more than they
have in the bank.
Whether the Yahoo deal works or not, we won’t know for a long
time to come. What I do know is that Microsoft isn’t doing as
well as they were when Bill was running the show.
Vista is a disaster that no one wants to talk about. Large
Windows XP organizations are terrified someone is going to
force them into an upgrade. Office 2007, according to my
sources, it’s the same thing. And now Microsoft wants 25% of
their revenue to come from advertizing. Well, incase you didn’t
catch the clue from Google’s earning, that business is
cyclical.
I wonder if Microsoft will ever have to bring Bill back the way
Dell brought Michael back. Good Management or not, time will
tell.
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Last Updated ( Monday, 04 February 2008 )
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More...
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TTO Weekend Update 02/03/08
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TTO Daily Update 01/31/08
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TTO Daily Update 01/30/08
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TTO Daily Update 01/29/08, Hurry up and Wait for the FOMC
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TTO Daily Update 01/28/08
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TTO Weekend Update 01/27/08
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TTO Daily Update 01/24/08, A high tight consoliation
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TTO Daily Update 01/23/08, Rally in line with our longer-term cycle peak
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TTO Daily Update 01/22/08
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TTO Weekend Update 01/20/08, It Ain't Over Yet
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