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TTO_Section
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Written by Jim Patterson
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Monday, 01 October 2007 |
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The chart below shows the Dow’s performance in
every year numbered seven from October 1 through the end of the
year. With the exception of 1947 when the US was booming after
the end of World War II, every October in years ending with a
seven have closed down about five percent or more. In most
cases, the weakness developed before the end of the first week
of October, usually about the 4th to the 6th.
When looking at historical seasonality, this
is the single most consistent negative time period within the
entire decennial cycle.
The chart below shows the 10-year Decennial pattern for the Dow based on the past 110 years of history.
With
Ten of Eleven historical Year 7 Octobers down, the negative move in the
Decennial pattern is the most obvious negative period for the Dow due
to the consistency of negative moves. The table below shows the actual
results from approximately October 1 through October 31 for each year.
| 1897 |
-3.8% |
| 1907 |
-14.8% |
| 1917 |
-11.1% |
| 1927 |
-8.0% |
| 1937 |
-10.6% |
| 1947 |
2.4% |
| 1957 |
-3.3% |
| 1967 |
-5.1% |
| 1977 |
-3.4% |
| 1987 |
-23.2% |
| 1997 |
-6.3% |
In years 1927 (23%); 1967 (18%); 1987 (36%); 1997
(24%); and 2007 (11%); for an average gain of 22% as of the end of
September for positive years. The point being, it didn't matter if the
market was up or down going into October during a year 7, except for
1947, it was a very difficult month for the market.
Jim Patterson
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Last Updated ( Monday, 01 October 2007 )
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